In-licensing from China and the rise of lean, partner-led U.S. launches

When I worked in business development in Latin America, I negotiated and signed licensing and distribution agreements that brought products into new markets. The logic was simple: the best asset for a market is not always the one you invented. Today that logic is reshaping the U.S. pipeline itself.

Two trends, one opportunity

First, more assets are coming from outside the U.S., especially from China. According to DealForma data cited by Nature Biopharma Dealmakers, 38 percent of in-licensing deals by large-cap biopharma companies with at least $50 million upfront in 2025 originated from China, accounting for 30 percent of their total licensing upfront payments. Five of the top ten R&D licensing deals in the year to October 2025 involved companies based in China. Gibson Dunn expects this activity to remain high in 2026, increasingly shaped by national security screening, data provenance and supply-chain considerations.

Second, more launches are led by companies doing it for the first time. McKinsey found that between 2018 and 2023, roughly 40 percent of new assets were launched by companies with little to no commercialization experience, almost double the share of the previous five years. The same analysis found that only 20 to 30 percent of first-time launchers exceeded launch expectations, compared with 40 to 50 percent of established companies.

Put together, the opportunity is clear. Many promising assets will reach the U.S. through licensing and partnerships, and many will be launched by lean organizations. The gap between a good asset and a successful U.S. business is where commercial leadership matters most.

The stakes are rising. The same McKinsey analysis estimates that about 80 percent of the projected blockbusters for the next five years sit in the portfolios of first-time and recent launchers. Many of the most important medicines of the coming years will be launched by companies that are building their commercial capabilities as they go, often with partners.

What makes in-licensing work

A clear thesis. Know which therapeutic area, which patient and which part of your commercial engine the asset will use. Licensing is easiest to justify when it strengthens something you already do well.

Commercial diligence alongside scientific diligence. Will U.S. physicians change practice? What will payers require? How will patients access the product? These questions deserve as much rigor as the clinical data.

Structure that fits the risk. Territory rights, milestones, co-development and co-commercialization options shape the economics. Getting them right matters as much as the headline value.

Attention to the new risk factors. Data provenance, manufacturing and supply chain, and regulatory screening are now part of the deal conversation for cross-border licensing.

The lean, partner-led launch

A first-time launcher does not need to build a large commercial organization to win, but it does need to make the right choices early. The McKinsey analysis highlights a few that stand out, and they match what I have seen in practice.

Start access early. McKinsey reports that more successful first-time launchers onboarded their market access team four to six months earlier than less successful peers, and about 75 percent of the less successful group said access engagement started too late.

Power the launch properly. The same research found that companies outperforming commercial expectations invested about 1.5 times as much in launch activities as peers that did not. Lean does not mean underpowered; it means focused.

Be precise. Data-driven targeting of physicians and patients, and channels chosen for the specific product, let a small team reach the right customers.

Use partners deliberately. Contract sales, specialty pharmacy and hub services, and co-promotion partners can provide scale without permanent fixed cost. The skill is in choosing, contracting and managing them as one team.

Put senior commercial leadership in place early. Often that is a fractional Chief Commercial Officer or U.S. head who has launched before, well ahead of approval.

The formula view

The Scalar Formula is People × Culture × Strategy × Communication × Adoption × Execution = Results. Partner-led launches add a twist: the People, Culture and Adoption factors extend beyond your own walls. When licensor, licensee, contract sales and service partners each hold a different version of the plan, results suffer. The best partner-led launches run as one team, with one story and one scorecard.

The global pipeline is more international than ever, and more launches are led by lean teams. With the right thesis, deal structure and launch discipline, that is a powerful combination.

Sources

1. Nature Biopharma Dealmakers, top R&D licensing deals of 2025 (DealForma data)
2. Gibson Dunn, 2026 Life Sciences Industry Outlook: Collaborations and Licensing
3. McKinsey, Small but mighty: priming biotech first-time launchers (November 2024)

Figures are as reported by the sources above, accessed October 2026.

Recommended for: Preparing a U.S. launch, Turnaround or growth acceleration, Investors and BD / M&A

Emilio Fernandez is the Owner & CEO of Scalar Group and a former Novartis commercial leader, with 20+ years in commercial leadership and P&Ls up to $2.2B. More about Emilio.